by a special correspondent
Sri Lanka’s electricity generation mix has shifted modestly toward oil-based power in early March, raising fresh concerns about rising energy costs at a time when global crude prices remain volatile amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Recent power sector data released by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka shows that thermal fuel-based electricity generation increased to 23.1 percent of total output during the week ending 12 March, compared with 19.9 percent recorded during the final week of February.
The increase comes as hydropower generation declined slightly over the same period. Hydropower accounted for 23.2 percent of electricity generation, down from 25.1 percent earlier, reflecting seasonal fluctuations in water availability.
Energy analysts note that such shifts are not unusual during this time of the year. However, the current increase in oil-fired generation is drawing attention because global energy markets are facing heightened instability due to geopolitical tensions linked to the Gulf War–type environment created by rising hostilities in the region.
Coal remained the largest single contributor to Sri Lanka’s electricity mix, accounting for around 30.4 percent of generation, only slightly lower than the 32 percent share recorded during the final week of February.
Renewable sources continued to play an important but secondary role. Solar energy accounted for approximately 20.8 percent of total generation, largely unchanged from 21.7 percent in the previous period. Wind power contributed about 1.9 percent, while biomass represented only around 0.6 percent of total output.
Electricity demand also showed signs of increasing. Peak demand reached 3,040 megawatts on 12 March, compared with 2,944 megawatts recorded on 26 February. Total daily electricity generation rose slightly to 58.16 gigawatt hours, up from 56.20 gigawatt hours recorded earlier.
A closer look at the data reveals a noticeable rise in oil-fired power generation. Output from oil-based plants climbed to 14.02 gigawatt hours on 12 March, compared with 11.69 gigawatt hours recorded on 26 February.
Across the week ending 12 March, oil-fired generation ranged between 12.08 and 14.02 gigawatt hours per day. This was significantly higher than the range recorded during the final week of February, when daily oil-based output fluctuated between 8.19 and 12.42 gigawatt hours.
Coal generation remained relatively stable, with daily output ranging between 15.09 and 18.22 gigawatt hours. These levels were broadly consistent with coal production recorded during the final week of February.
Hydropower generation, by contrast, showed a mild decline. Daily hydro output ranged between 12.29 and 13.72 gigawatt hours in early March, compared with higher levels earlier in the month, including 15.34 gigawatt hours recorded on 23 February.
With hydro output declining slightly, the power system has had to rely more heavily on thermal generation sources, particularly oil-fired plants, to meet growing electricity demand.
Renewable generation remained relatively stable during the period. Wind power generation ranged between 0.87 and 1.24 gigawatt hours per day, while solar output fluctuated between 11.33 and 12.71 gigawatt hours.
However, the growing reliance on oil-based electricity generation could have wider economic implications.
Global crude prices have surged above $100 per barrel amid intensifying tensions in the Middle East, increasing the import cost burden for energy-dependent economies such as Sri Lanka.
While the country’s coal-fired plants and expanding renewable capacity provide some degree of protection against price shocks, oil-fired generation remains an important balancing source during periods of high demand or lower hydropower output.
If global energy prices remain elevated for an extended period, Sri Lanka’s electricity sector could face higher fuel costs, potentially increasing pressure on the country’s trade balance and overall economic stability.