by a special correspondent
Sri Lanka is on the verge of a combined fuel and electricity crisis, as ongoing shortages begin to ripple across the country’s energy infrastructure. The situation is being driven by a complex mix of global geopolitical tensions, domestic policy missteps, and fragile supply chains.
Despite expectations of 25 fuel shipments following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, only around half have materialized. This shortfall has placed immense pressure on existing reserves, forcing authorities to divert the majority of incoming fuel toward power generation rather than industrial or transportation needs.
Reports indicate that nearly three-quarters of fuel from anticipated Russian shipments would need to be allocated for electricity generation alone. This reflects the growing dependence on thermal power as other energy sources falter.
Hydropower generation has been severely affected by drought conditions, significantly reducing output. At the same time, concerns have emerged over the quality of coal imports, with allegations that recent shipments have been substandard. This has further weakened the country’s base-load power capacity.
As a result, Sri Lanka has increasingly relied on diesel-powered generation, consuming an estimated 850,000 liters per day. This approach is both costly and unsustainable, especially in the context of limited fuel availability. Analysts warn that the country could face widespread power cuts if supplies are not stabilized soon.
The government’s decision to import American crude oil for the first time marks a notable shift in policy. While this move may help address immediate shortages, it also reflects a broader attempt to align with US economic interests, including efforts to reduce the bilateral trade gap. However, the suitability of such crude for local refining remains a concern.
Meanwhile, negotiations with Russia continue, but uncertainty persists. The proposed five-year agreement raises questions about long-term viability, particularly if international sanctions are reimposed. Complicating matters further are reports that fuel procurement arrangements may increasingly involve private intermediaries rather than formal state-to-state agreements, potentially reducing transparency and accountability.
The Public Utilities Commission’s recent move to increase electricity tariffs by nearly 25% signals the financial strain on the energy sector. Consumers are likely to bear the brunt of these increases, even as service reliability comes under threat.
Sri Lanka’s current predicament underscores the interconnected nature of energy security and foreign policy. The country’s inability to secure consistent fuel supplies has not only jeopardized refinery operations but also heightened the risk of a nationwide power crisis.
Without a clear and pragmatic strategy that balances diplomatic relationships with energy needs, Sri Lanka risks entering another period of economic instability marked by fuel queues, power outages, and public discontent.