| Geopolitical Analysis
The special summit on Artificial Intelligence (AI) convening today in New Delhi, chaired by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is far from a mere technological symposium. The invitation extended to Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake to share a stage with global heavyweights such as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and French President Emmanuel Macron represents a decisive maneuver on the South Asian geopolitical chessboard.
1. India’s ‘Soft Power’ Offensive and the NPP Administration
Historically rooted in anti-Indian rhetoric, the ruling National People’s Power (NPP) administration has executed a stark paradigm shift. New Delhi, recognizing this transition, is currently deploying a highly sophisticated strategy of ‘strategic absorption.’
- Cultivating a Global Persona: By seating President Dissanayake alongside leaders like Macron and Lula, India is actively projecting a ‘global statesman’ aura onto him. New Delhi is astutely aware that an administration grappling with severe domestic economic and administrative hurdles desperately requires this international validation.
- The Tethering Strategy: Having previously elevated figures like Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya and opposition members (such as Namal Rajapaksa) through various diplomatic channels, India is now directly anchoring the Executive President into its regional agenda. This is a calculated investment with a price tag—designed to secure Colombo’s unconditional backing for Indian geopolitical imperatives, including debt restructuring paradigms, energy sector dominance, and the proposed land bridge.
2. The President’s Tightrope Walk
While the current administration’s newfound diplomatic flexibility blatantly contradicts its historical ideological dogma, geographic determinism leaves them with no viable alternative.
- Managing Sri Lanka’s fragile economic recovery makes it impossible for the President to bypass the gravitational pull of Indian credit lines and the IMF. New Delhi’s ultimate objective is to ensure the Colombo administration remains firmly entrenched under its regional ‘security umbrella.’
3. The Dragon’s Silence: China’s Strategic Patience
Beijing is observing this entire geopolitical realignment in profound silence—a stance that should not be misconstrued as weakness. China has meticulously analyzed the current Sri Lankan government’s pivot towards India and the West.
- The Art of Biding Time: China is not rushing its next move. As long as key strategic assets like the Colombo Port City and the Hambantota Port remain secure, Beijing will refrain from direct intervention in Colombo’s domestic political fluctuations.
- Economic Statecraft: Irrespective of the political optics India currently provides, China retains the upper hand in immediate, large-scale infrastructure funding and rapid economic relief. Should the Colombo administration face severe economic asphyxiation in the future, China is poised to reassert its hegemony through its potent economic statecraft.
Conclusion
The irony is palpable:
the same India that recently hosted Sri Lankan opposition figures for its Republic Day—nurturing them as a strategic ‘Plan B’—is today offering President Dissanayake a seat among world leaders. This is not simply an ‘Artificial Intelligence’ summit; it is a highly calculated ‘Natural Intelligence’ operation orchestrated by Modi to prevent Sri Lanka from slipping out of its orbit. Meanwhile, the Dragon waits patiently for this Indo-Lanka diplomatic honeymoon to meet the harsh realities of economic survival.